Under the Hood Q3 2022
by Danno Remember, if you look at the S&P 500 on a... Daily basis, you can expect it to be down about 47% of the time. Monthly basis, you can expect it to be down ~37% of the time. Quarterly basis, you can expect it to be down ~31% of the time. Annual basis, you can expect it to be down ~25% of the time. 5-year basis, you can expect it to be down ~12% of the time. 10-year basis, you can expect it to be down ~6% of the time. 20-year basis, you can expect it to be down ~0% of the time. Here is the update to JP Morgan's outstanding graphic on annual max drawdowns in the S&P... Notice how the biggest falls seem to be followed by the biggest bounces?... This is normal in stocks. What's weird is years like 2021 where it's smooth sailing and we only have a few 4%-5% selloffs. What's also weird is that stocks and bonds are both doing very poorly at the same time through the first 9 months of this year. That will change soon enough. As a reminder, here is the S&a