The Transparent Advisor

by Danno   The Dow hit 30,000 on Tuesday.   A "Happy Thanksgiving" gift to all of us I guess.  I usually beat up on "The Dow" because it's a dumb index that hasn't been relevant for decades.  Even though professionals are something like 360-times more likely to use the S&P 500 index as a benchmark than the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the general public's familiarity with "The Dow" makes these kind of round number milestones at least notable. First, let's be clear, Dow "points" mean shit.  Percentage gains and losses are what matters for investors.  Here are the round 10,000-point Dow milestones (from Wikipedia): The Dow hit 1,000 in November 1972. From 1,000 to 10,000 it took 26 1/2 years, a 900% gain ($1 became $10) From 10,000 to 20,000 it took almost 18 years, a 100% gain ($1 became $2) From 20,000 to 30,000 it took almost 4 years, a 50% gain ($1 became $1.50) When I say points don't matter, percentages do, here is wh

Election 2020 has mercifully come and gone, and there will be a new President in January 2021.  Regardless of how you voted, it's clear that the new President is approaching his messaging differently than the current President, which will undoubtedly make for an awkward couple months. Meanwhile, we got some good vaccine trial data back Monday from Pfizer that looks very promising. And just like that the global stock market has jumped about 10% in just a week.   This is not unusual when some kind of anxiety-inducing event(s) comes to a conclusion, providing more clarity.  While people often want to get more conservative in their investments or sell everything in the face of expected uncertainty, a relief rally like this is why that's often the exact wrong thing to do. Here are 5 good reads from the past week: Paul Tudor Jones: The Mental Obstacles of Investing  by Jon at novelinvestor.com Oh Happy Day  by Blair duQuesnay When the Dust Settles  by Michael Batnick What Happens Whe

  by Danno   It's finally here, Election Day 2020. It’s almost the worst possible circumstances imaginable for an incumbent to be running for re-election.  The math nerds calculated that Trump had a 35% chance against Hillary going into November 2016, and closer to 10% chance this time.  We'll see.  The weighted expectation is that the Republicans barely keep the Senate, Biden beats Trump, Trump prematurely announces his own victory to the contrary on Twitter, inciting a certain amount of hostility and hysteria, and then immediately starts accusing others of trying to steal his election by actually counting all the votes.   Yes, those are actually the expectations.  Welcome to 2020. In alignment with the perception of their positions on COVID, the prevailing thought is that Biden voters are much more likely to use mail-in ballots, and that Trump voters are much more likely to vote in-person.   Several southern states have already started counting mail-in ballots, so early resul