Under the Hood 2021 Q3
by Danno Q3 ended with a whimper, as markets around the world stumbled through the month of September. The S&P 500 is now up about 15% on the year, despite fading 5% from the early-September highs. If you look at the S&P 500 on a... Daily basis, you can expect it to be down about 47% of the time. Monthly basis, you can expect it to be down ~37% of the time. Quarterly basis, you can expect it to be down ~31% of the time. Annual basis, you can expect it to be down ~25% of the time. 5-year basis, you can expect it to be down ~12% of the time. 10-year basis, you can expect it to be down ~6% of the time. 20-year basis, you can expect it to be down ~0% of the time. Including drops of 4%-4 1/2% in January, February, and May, this has been one of the least volatile years in the past 4 decades. If the price action in late-September or early-October made you feel nervous, this chart from JP Morgan Asset Management provides perspective by illustrating the annual returns versus the i