The Transparent Advisor

  by Danno So we've all been through this once-in-a-lifetime experience over the past 2 years.  Pandemic.  Economic "shutdown"... kinda.  Daily deaths higher than 9/11... allegedly.  Income and wealth disparity at or near record levels.  Riots in streets.  "Insurrection". Racial tension. Political tension. Inflation. The most recent pandemic comparison we have is the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919.  What came after that was the "Roaring 20's", and the stock market did this... (from macrotrends.net) Fine, it's only a sample size of 1, but it's kind of the only comp we have to work with.  I gotta believe that the Spanish Flu damn near shut down the economy. I gotta believe that lots of people lost their jobs. I gotta believe that people changed their behaviors. I gotta believe that people rethought the way the world worked.  I gotta believe there were supply chain disruptions. I gotta believe there were 2nd and 3rd and 4th strains of the virus. I g

  by Danno Stocks gobally (the MSCI All-Country World Index) finished the year up about 18%, led by US Large Caps (the S&P 500).  That's good for US investors because every country around the world is overweight their own country's stocks.  But these are the times when your diversified portfolio makes you feel like you're "missing out"...  You're not.  It will swing back the other way sooner or later, and you'll feel smart again.  But for now, US Stocks are on a roll.  If you look at the S&P 500 on a... Daily basis, you can expect it to be down about 47% of the time. Monthly basis, you can expect it to be down ~37% of the time. Quarterly basis, you can expect it to be down ~31% of the time. Annual basis, you can expect it to be down ~25% of the time. 5-year basis, you can expect it to be down ~12% of the time. 10-year basis, you can expect it to be down ~6% of the time. 20-year basis, you can expect it to be down ~0% of the time. Including drops of